ABPW10 PGTW 011300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011300Z-020600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.8S 165.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 
C). THE LLCC LIES UNDER THE BASE OF A VERY SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROF, WHICH 
IS BRINGING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN FROM THE WEST AND INDUCING THE HIGH 
NORTHERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DECLINE OF 99P. 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, GFS AND ECMWF, ARE UNABLE TO PICK UP ON THE SYSTEM 
ANY LONGER. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL REFLECT 99P AND AGREE ON IT 
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, THERE ARE FEWER MEMBERS SUPPORTING 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) TO LOW.//
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