ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: 
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8S 164.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 165.5W, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY. 99P IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL 
CYCLONE, CAUSING THE CIRCULATION TO BE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. A 312047Z 
METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD. 
20-25 KNOT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH MUCH 
WEAKER (5-10 KTS) WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS) AND 
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE ON 99P STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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