ABIO10 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/311330ZDEC2025-311800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZDEC2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311321ZDEC2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.0S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.8S 124.3E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 302100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM 
NORTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ 
GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN 
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C 
(WTXS21 311330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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