WTXS21 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 104.8E TO 14.2S 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES 
THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011330Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W.
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