ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZDEC2025-010600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310152ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.4S 165.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.3W, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST 
OF MANUA ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 302026Z ASCAT REVELED A HIGHLY 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 99P WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 
C), MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 99P TRACKING SOUTHWARD 
AND MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 310200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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