WTPS21 PGTW 310200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300153ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 165.2W TO 18.6S 165.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 165.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8S 167.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST 
OF MANU ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 302026Z ASCAT REVELED A HIGHLY 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 99P WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 
C), MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 99P TRACKING SOUTHWARD 
AND MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 300200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
010200Z.
//
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