WTPS21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291752ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S 168.3W TO 14.8S 165.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 168.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.7S 167.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 168.2W, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANUA ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), 
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 10 KTS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE 
GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A FASTER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 291800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
310200Z.
//
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