ABIO10 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/280100Z-281800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280051ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.0S 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 980 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 120E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 272224Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 96S CONTINUING 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 280100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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