ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.0S 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 980 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED 
FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW 96S CONTINUING 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH ECENS SHOWING A MORE INTENSE 
SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS BEING 
THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC MODEL SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. 
MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN