ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.9S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 
118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY AND MINOR FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 
KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW 96S CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT WIND FIELD. 
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 96S TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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