ABIO10 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/180200Z-181800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.0S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 172301Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT FOR INVEST 93S.//
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