WTXS21 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151Z DEC 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 111.7E TO 12.3S 108.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 111.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 172301Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
190200Z.//
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