ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.1S 92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9S 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(IR) DEPICTS, A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. A 171433Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S AND THAT IT WILL MOVE 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTXS21 PGTW 170200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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