ABIO10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/170200Z-171800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI /170151DEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6S 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND 
RAPIDLY ROTATING LLCC, WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL 
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 170200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN