WTXS21 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 113.3E TO 14.5S 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND 
RAPIDLY ROTATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT 
IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS 
CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
180200Z.
//
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