ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z-
171800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.6S 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 114.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 529 NM EAST 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
A LARGE BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST, EVIDENT IN A 
161409Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 161641 METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 25 
TO 30 KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OF 93S BEYOND 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS CONSOLIDATING MOST 
QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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