ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.9S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3S 113.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY 474 NM 
NORTHWEST OF ROWLEY SHOALS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 151332 METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-
20 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 
C), AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON 93S GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, 
WITH GFS HAVING FASTER CONSOLIDATION THAN ECMWF. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUASI-STATIONARY, MEANDERING 
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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