ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E, 
APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER, EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 05-10 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT IN PORTRAYING 94P. GFS AND THE GEFS 
ENSEMBLE ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, IN STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND 
INTENSIFYING 94P AS IT TRACKS TO THE ESE, WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC 
MODEL IS DOING A POOR JOB IN INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM AND CARRIES THIS 
FORWARD, NOT DEPICTING A CIRCULATION CENTER AT ALL. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 
NO OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS AVAILABLE, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE TRACK 
AND INTENSITY TREND IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 140100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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