WTPS21 PGTW 140100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 167.9E TO 14.4S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 168.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH 
OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 
132123Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS (15-20 KTS) ON THE WESTERN SIDE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
10 TO 15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW 94P FURTHER CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHILE 
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150100Z.//
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