WTXS21 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 101.8E TO 9.8S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM 
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM 
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY 
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
120900Z.//
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