ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-
111800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.1S 98.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 99.7E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM WEST OF 
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, 
AND A 101439Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS DEPICTED ELEVATED WINDS FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, POORLY-ORGANIZED, 
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 10-15 
KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 
28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN 
FORMATION TIME WITH ECMWF BEING CONSERVATIVE WITH FORMATION. WHILE THE 
TRACKS ARE IN AGREEANCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM INITIALLY 
TRANSITING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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