WTPN21 PGTW 061830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051851ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 051900).THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 
12.3N 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI.ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND 
RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION 
DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS). 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29-30 C). DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAN 
BE ANALYZED TO THE EAST OF 93W. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC IS APPROACHING 
LAND, RESULTING IN INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ON THE CIRCULATION. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W 
WILL CROSS OVER THE PHILIPPINES, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD SURGE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
//
NNNN