ABPW10 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051900Z-060600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051851ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS 
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE 
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO 
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 051900) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
16.0S 148.0W, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM NORTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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