WTPN21 PGTW 051900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 126.2E TO 11.0N 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 126.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4N 127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051346Z ASCAT REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS 
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE 
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECENS SHOWING A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE TWO 
MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061900Z.//
NNNN