ABPW10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041800Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 157.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5 152.8W, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS 
A COMPACT AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), 
WHICH HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS 
FLARING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING 
FEATURES AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND 
SHALLOW BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP 
INTO TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P 
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. 
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE TROPICAL IN NATURE, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P 
WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO 
THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER), 
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFRENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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