ABPW10 PGTW 041430 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/041430Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS 
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S 
157.9W, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL, YET 
DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90P TRANSITING 
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A COMPACT WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS 
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO 
THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER), 
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFRENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SUBTROPICAL STORM VERBAGE 
TO INVEST 99P IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
NNNN