ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9N 131.UE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 417 NM 
EAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. A 12040130Z ASCAT-C PASS 
REVEALS AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE WEST AND 
NORTH OF THE LLCC, WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING NEAR THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.           
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4S 149.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 150.5W, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM 
NORTHWEST OF FARE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 040212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY 
SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(25 KNOTS OR GREATER), STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND 
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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