ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND 
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OVER THE 
PHILIPPINES AND INTERACTS WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT. 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 93W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECENS SHOWING 
HIGHER CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRANSITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S 
147.2W, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. THIS SYSTEM 
IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 
DEEP CONSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF AN 
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, A 
030943Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE WIND 
FIELD OF 99P. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REVEAL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A 
SHARP TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT 
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS A LOW IN 
PARA. 2.C.(1).//
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