ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND STRONG 
MID-LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH 
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND INTERACTS 
WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 93W 
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECENS SHOWING HIGHER CHANCE OF 
INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRANSITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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