ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0N 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE CONVECTION. 
FURTHERMORE, A 012340Z 25KM ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THE BROAD NATURE OF 
93W WITH 15-20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPLYING THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD 
TURN OVER THE NEXT 36-72 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THAT THE 
DISTURBANCE WILL INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE 
NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT NEAR THE PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 155.3W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN