ABPW10 PGTW 281200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281200Z-290600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280751ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
12.5N 112.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 04B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 101.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH 
OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL 
AS A 280608Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND PERSISTENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ECMWF BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A 
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS 
HESITANT ON A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE REMNANTS OF 04B REMAINING 
RELATIVELY RAGGED THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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