ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
12.3N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 04B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 101.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM 
NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS 04B SLOWLY RECONSOLIDATING AS ITS CROSSING THE MALAY 
PENINSULA TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BUT STILL APPEARS VERY BROAD AND 
DISORGANIZED, OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO 
THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE WESTERN 
SIDE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DUEL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
GETTING SHIFTED TO THE WEST BY WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE 
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON THE 
CIRCULATION WITHIN 24 HOURS BUT THEY SHOW THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY 
DETERIORATE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT ATTEMPTS TO TRANSIT EASTWARD. 
ENSEMBLES TELL A SIMILAR STORY WITH GFS REVEALING VERY MINIMAL POTENTIAL 
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS OVER LAND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LIKING THE SYSTEM MORE BUT ALL MEMBERS 
DISAPPEAR AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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