WTIO21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 81.7E TO 9.1N 81.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 81.5E. IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 81.4E 100 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 261611Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS APPEARING 
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING 
AGAINST THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) AROUND THE COASTLINE OF SRI LANKA, GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR PRESENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT DEPICTING 96B TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER 
SRI LANKA AND TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272100Z.//
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