ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261352ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (SENYAR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 3.7N 98.6E, APPROXIMATELY 643 NM SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.5N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 261611Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS 
APPEARING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE 
BANDING AGAINST THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C AROUND THE COASTLINE OF SRI LANKA, AND 
RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
PRESENT (20-25 KTS). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT DEPICTING 96B TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER SRI 
LANKA TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL COUNTING TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A 
UNIFORM CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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