ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZNOV2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 4.7N 99.0E, APPROXIMATELY 872 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 79.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTH 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A RECENT 251222 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DEPICT A 
POORLY-ORGANIZED, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, DUAL-
CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
PORTRAYING 96B TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER SRI LANKA TOWARD THE BAY 
OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN