ABIO10 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/251500Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZNOV2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 4.7N 99.0E, APPROXIMATELY 872 NM SOUTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.7N 99.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.1N 78.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 79.2E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN 
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END 
OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST 
OF SRI LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW 
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A 
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS//
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