ABIO10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250600Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS 
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.6N 77.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST 
OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI 
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW 
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A 
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.(B).1 TO 
HIGH.//
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