WTIO21 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250551Z NOV 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 250600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7N 99.4E TO 5.6N 97.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
99.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR, 4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY DEVELOPMENT 
WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260600Z.//
NNNN