ABIO10 PGTW 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.9N 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE 
ASSESSED CENTER OF 95B. A RECENT 250208Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IN THE MIDDLE OF 
THE STRAITS OF MALACCA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE 
CIRCULATION, A SIGNIFICANT AND DRAMATIC STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER 
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE NOT IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT, TRACKING 95B ACROSS A WIDE-RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. 
ECEPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SUMATRA, 
HINDERING DEVELOPING, WHILE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT KEEPS 
IT OVER WATER, RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE 
NAVGEM FORECASTS 95B TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE 
MALAY PENINSULA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N 
79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI 
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW 
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A 
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2). AND 
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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