SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
ABIO10 PGTW 250400
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN OBSCURED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH 
GFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS WHILE ECMWF IS 
MORE CONSERVATIVE. ONLY GEFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN BE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED 
THROUGHOUT THE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT 
ON THE TRACK BUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTING A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PROVENCE OF ACEH. THEY BOTH SHOW GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. ULTIMATELY WITH GEFS HAVING A 
STRONGER TRACK AND SYSTEM LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N 
79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI 
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW 
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A 
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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