ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z-
251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP 
LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND 
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION 
REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS WHILE ECMWF IS MORE CONSERVATIVE. ONLY GEFS 
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN 
BE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A 
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK BUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND 
ECENS DEPICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PROVENCE OF ACEH. THEY 
BOTH SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. ULTIMATELY WITH GEFS 
HAVING A STRONGER TRACK AND SYSTEM LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 209 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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