WTPN21 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 126.8E TO 11.1N 121.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 132.1E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTHEAST OF 
DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 240126Z 
METOP C 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A 
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND AREAS OF FORMATIVE 
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240129Z ASCAT 
PASS REVEALS A WELL CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING 
INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED 140 NM NORTH OF THE 
PERCEIVED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE 
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH INTENSIFICATION 
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
250600Z.
//
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