ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.4N 98.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 334 NM 
NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION THAT IS GETTING SHEARED TO THE WEST IN THE UPPER LEVELS, 
WHILE A 231352 METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS FROM 
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT 
DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS 
WHILE ECMWF IS MORE CONSERVATIVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN BE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED 
THROUGHOUT THE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON 
THE TRACK BUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTING A 
STRONG SIGNAL FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT GEFS IS 
SHOWING THE SIGNAL TRACKING INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AS OPPOSED TO ECENS 
WHICH IS SHOWING MOST OF THE SIGNAL AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF 
SUMATRA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEMS LIFECYCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.6S 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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