ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z-
231800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 
98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS GETTING SHEARED TO THE WEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING AN EARLIER 
TIMELINE OF DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL 
AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS, WITH INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS, AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITS 
WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22NOV25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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