***EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE*** SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM LORENZO (86L) WARNING NR 001 WTNT31 PHNC 130900 1. TROPICAL STORM LORENZO (86L) WARNING NR 001 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 86L 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 39.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 39.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.0N 41.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.2N 43.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.0N 44.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.1N 44.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.1N 42.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 30.9N 36.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 33.2N 29.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 40.1W. 13OCT25. TROPICAL STORM LORENZO (86L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1187 NM EAST OF BARBADOS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. // BT #0001 NNNN ***EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE***