ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZNOV2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4S 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING STARTING TO WRAP ALONG THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 161334Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY SMALL 
CIRCULATION, WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF 97S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. 
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND AGREE 
UPON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS 97S 
CONSOLIDATING FASTER THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS, HOWEVER, 
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD NAVGEM SHOWING A FASTER CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM 
BUT IT SINCE HAS BACKED OFF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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