ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZNOV2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04NOV25 0000Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
10.6N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.2N 145.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
031652Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED CELLS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT. A 031127Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH A SWATH OF 20KT WINDS CURVING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER NEXT 24 
HOURS, AS WELL AS TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO MODEL IS SLIGHTLY 
DELAYED ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE WITH CONSOLIDATION TAKING PLACE IN 
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 031930) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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