ABPW10 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031930Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZNOV2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03NOV25 1200Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
10.6N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.0N 145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
031652Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED CELLS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT. A 031127Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20KT WINDS CURVING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE 
OF THE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA 
WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS, AS WELL AS TRACK TO THE 
NORTHWEST. THE EURO MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED ON THE DEVELOPMENT 
TIMELINE WITH CONSOLIDATION TAKING PLACE IN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 031930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN