WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 145.1E TO 12.1N 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 145.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031652Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED CELLS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT. A 031127Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH A SWATH OF 20KT WINDS CURVING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER NEXT 24 
HOURS, AS WELL AS TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO MODEL IS SLIGHTLY 
DELAYED ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE WITH CONSOLIDATION TAKING PLACE IN 
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
041930Z.
//
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