ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03NOV25 0600Z, TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
10.4N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM 
SOUTH OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED BURSTS OF 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 031127Z AND 031042Z 
ASCAT PASSES SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 
25 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WINDS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND 
WEST ARE MUCH WEAKER THOUGH (10-15 KTS) AND DO NOT CREATE A DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) YET. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 
KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS, NAVGEM, AND 
GEFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO 
ECMWF AND ECENS, WHICH DEPICT A SLOWER CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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